Figures to March 2023 (published 25 May 2023)
Updated 21 March 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
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The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.
1. Key points at March 2023
Outputs
- The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 12.8% in the 12 months to March 2023.
- There were 8 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for March 2023. The largest upward contribution was milk (4.3 percentage points), followed by poultry (2.3 percentage points), and pigs (2.2 percentage points).
- There were 6 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for March 2023. The largest downward contribution was oilseed rape (-1.2 percentage points), followed by barley (-0.6 percentage points), and sheep and lambs (-0.3 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 0.4% in the month to March 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 0.2% in the month to February 2023.
Inputs
- In the 12 months to March 2023, the price index for agricultural inputs increased by 6.4%.
- There were 9 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for March 2023. The largest upward contribution came from compound feedingstuffs (5.8 percentage points), followed by energy and lubricants (1.6 percentage points), and other goods and services (0.8 percentage points).
- There were 3 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for March 2023. The largest downward contribution was fertilisers and soil improvers (-3.5 percentage points), followed by straight feedingstuffs (-0.3 percentage points) and seeds (-0.1 percentage points).
- The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.6% in the month to March 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 1.3% in the month to February 2023.
2. Summary charts for price indices
Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to March 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since January 2020. The two indices were closely aligned throughout 2020 and much of 2021, before agricultural inputs saw considerably higher rates of inflation as prices of key inputs (e.g. fertiliser, animal feed) experienced rapid price increases. Following this, the agricultural inputs index saw a period of price stabilisation while the agricultural outputs index continued to rise, peaking later in 2022. The two indices have seen modest declines going into 2023, with the gap between the two indices narrowing.
Note that this is the first time we are publishing the Agricultural Price Index (API) under the new base year of 2020. Therefore, patterns previously observed will no longer hold in the new series. For example, under the 2015 base year, the outputs and inputs series were very close in early 2023, while there is a gap between the two in the new series.
Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to March 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2020. In 2023 (to date), the annual average price index is 6.6% higher for agricultural outputs and 1.6% higher for agricultural inputs. The price index for inputs has been consistently higher than that for outputs since 2020, with the gap between the two series being widest in 2022.
| Year | All agricultural outputs | All agricultural inputs |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2021 | 109.7 | 111.4 |
| 2022 | 130.4 | 143.2 |
| 2023 | 139.0 | 145.4 |
3. Contributions to change in the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 3: Contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+12.8%) from March 2022 to March 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 3 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+12.8%) observed between March 2022 and March 2023. Of the 16 output categories shown, 8 reported price increases. The largest upward contributions came from milk, poultry, pigs, and fresh vegetables, with the largest downward contributions coming from oilseed rape, barley, sheep and lambs, and wheat.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Milk | 4.3 |
| Poultry | 2.3 |
| Pigs | 2.2 |
| Fresh vegetables | 2.2 |
| Cattle and calves | 1.9 |
| Eggs | 1.2 |
| Potatoes | 0.9 |
| Oats | 0.1 |
| Sugar beet | 0.0 |
| Plants and flowers | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | -0.0 |
| Fresh fruit | -0.2 |
| Wheat | -0.3 |
| Sheep and lambs | -0.3 |
| Barley | -0.6 |
| Oilseed rape | -1.2 |
Notes:
- Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
Figure 4: Contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+6.4%) from March 2022 to March 2023 (2020 = 100)
Figure 4 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (+6.4%) observed between March 2022 and March 2023. of the 12 input categories shown, 9 reported price increases. The largest upward contributions came from compound feedingstuffs, energy and lubricants, other goods and services, and plant protection products. Downward contributions were reported from fertilisers and soil improvers, straight feedingstuffs, and seeds.
| Category | Contribution (percentage points) |
|---|---|
| Compound feedingstuffs | 5.8 |
| Energy and lubricants | 1.6 |
| Other goods and services | 0.8 |
| Plant protection products | 0.6 |
| Buildings | 0.5 |
| Materials | 0.4 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 0.3 |
| Maintenance of materials | 0.3 |
| Veterinary services | 0.1 |
| Seeds | -0.1 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | -0.3 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | -3.5 |
Notes:
- Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate
Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, March 2022 to March 2023
Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 12.8% and 23.8% since March 2022, with the main contributor consistently being livestock and animal products over this time. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate saw upward contributions from horticulture and livestock and animal products, while negative contributions were recorded from cereals and industrial and other crops.
Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, March 2022 to March 2023
Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between 6.4% and 35.3% since March 2022, with the main contributor having been livestock-related costs since October 2022. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate saw upward contributions from all inputs categories except crop-related costs. This is the first time any input category has reported a negative contribution in the last year. The inflation rate for inputs fell considerably in March amid large drops in fertiliser prices, driven by further falls in wholesale gas prices. Price decreases also continue to be observed in other key inputs, including animal feed and motor fuels.
More information on the contents of each group can be found in the ‘About these statistics’ section below.
5. Summary table of price indices
Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to March 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate
Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.
| Category | March 2022 | February 2023 | March 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural outputs | 122.8 | 139.1 | 138.5 | 12.8 | -0.4 |
| Crop products | 131.5 | 134.3 | 134.3 | 2.1 | -0.0 |
| Cereals | 150.6 | 152.8 | 144.5 | -4.1 | -5.4 |
| Wheat | 142.9 | 148.0 | 140.1 | -1.9 | -5.4 |
| Barley | 180.8 | 168.5 | 157.6 | -12.8 | -6.5 |
| Oats | 144.4 | 162.1 | 158.9 | 10.1 | -1.9 |
| Potatoes | 108.8 | 135.0 | 140.9 | 29.5 | 4.4 |
| Oilseed rape | 194.6 | 142.1 | 134.4 | -31.0 | -5.5 |
| Sugar beet | 131.4 | 131.4 | 131.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forage plants | 79.7 | 72.2 | 71.4 | -10.4 | -1.1 |
| Fresh vegetables | 103.8 | 141.9 | 159.1 | 53.3 | 12.1 |
| Fresh fruit | 116.2 | 91.0 | 100.8 | -13.2 | 10.8 |
| Animals and animal products | 117.7 | 141.6 | 140.9 | 19.7 | -0.5 |
| Animals | 111.0 | 128.8 | 131.5 | 18.5 | 2.1 |
| Cattle and calves | 123.6 | 139.5 | 141.4 | 14.4 | 1.4 |
| Pigs | 89.5 | 129.5 | 133.3 | 49.0 | 3.0 |
| Sheep and lambs | 121.8 | 106.7 | 114.5 | -6.0 | 7.4 |
| Poultry | 100.9 | 124.9 | 125.2 | 24.1 | 0.2 |
| Animal products | 127.8 | 162.4 | 155.2 | 21.4 | -4.4 |
| Milk | 131.1 | 164.8 | 156.4 | 19.3 | -5.1 |
| Eggs | 109.3 | 153.3 | 153.3 | 40.2 | 0.0 |
Notes:
-
Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.
-
Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.
-
This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.
-
Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to March 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate
Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.
| Category | March 2022 | February 2023 | March 2023 | 12-month rate (%) | 1-month rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All agricultural inputs | 134.5 | 145.6 | 143.2 | 6.4 | -1.6 |
| Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture | 137.6 | 149.6 | 146.6 | 6.5 | -2.0 |
| Seeds | 110.9 | 108.5 | 109.0 | -1.7 | 0.5 |
| Energy and lubricants | 152.1 | 182.9 | 180.6 | 18.7 | -1.3 |
| Fertilisers and soil improvers | 274.6 | 243.6 | 215.1 | -21.7 | -11.7 |
| Plant protection products | 109.7 | 121.6 | 126.0 | 14.9 | 3.6 |
| Veterinary services | 101.8 | 104.7 | 104.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Animal feedingstuffs | 130.4 | 154.0 | 152.8 | 17.1 | -0.8 |
| Straight feedingstuffs | 140.6 | 141.0 | 135.7 | -3.5 | -3.8 |
| Compound feedingstuffs | 127.0 | 158.5 | 158.5 | 24.8 | 0.0 |
| Maintenance of materials | 109.1 | 115.6 | 115.1 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Maintenance of buildings | 128.8 | 139.5 | 140.0 | 8.7 | 0.4 |
| Other goods and services | 106.7 | 114.9 | 115.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Goods and services contributing to investment | 119.0 | 126.0 | 126.3 | 6.2 | 0.2 |
| Materials | 115.7 | 120.5 | 120.5 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Buildings | 126.0 | 137.9 | 138.8 | 10.1 | 0.6 |
Notes:
-
Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.
-
This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.
-
Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.
National Statistics status
National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.
These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.
For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:
Email: info@statistics.gov.uk
Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034
You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/
About these statistics
Revisions
- Price index for eggs revised for October 2022 to December 2022.
- Price index for wool clip revised for January 2022 to December 2022.
Background
The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).
The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.
Data uses
Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.
Methodology
Price data
Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.
In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.
Weights
Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The March 2023 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2020, replacing weights based on 2015.
Contributions
It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.
The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.
The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:
-
Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.
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Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.
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Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.
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Animal feeding stuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.
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Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.
User engagement
As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.
Contact details
Responsible statistician: Matthew Lunn
Email: prices@defra.gov.uk
Public enquiries: (0)20 3025 7160
Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX