Research and analysis

Review of England’s emerging regional water resources plans

Published 24 May 2022

Applies to England

Executive summary

Not having enough water for people and wildlife is a major long-term threat to the environment, our economy and our lifestyle. The Environment Agency has a statutory duty to secure the proper use of water resources in England. We are now at a pivotal point of opportunity for water resources management. In March 2020, the Environment Agency published the National Framework for Water Resources. This marked a move to strategic regional planning. It set out the long-term water needs for England. This includes:

• public water supplies provided by water companies to customers’ homes and business
• direct abstraction for agriculture, electricity generation and industry
• the water needs of the environment

Meeting these needs requires:

• significant investment in infrastructure to increase supplies
• ambitious action to manage water demand

17 January 2022 was a significant milestone in how we plan our water and protect the environment. Regional water resources groups, made up of water companies and other water users and stakeholders, launched 5 emerging regional water resources plans for consultation. These indicated how the nation will manage water resources in the future. The decisions made now on these plans are the most important in a generation.

The Environment Agency and its fellow regulators, including Ofwat, have all responded individually to the emerging regional plans. The Environment Agency is pleased to see the emerging regional plans shared in public consultation. In summary, we see that the regional groups are:

• proposing demand management options and new water infrastructure solutions to tackle the forecast water supply deficit
• planning changes that will leave more water in the environment, although the approach to this varies between regions
• starting to work with other sectors and looking wider than public water supply

But our review shows the regional groups have challenges to overcome, and expectations to meet, before consultation on draft final regional plans in autumn 2022. The emerging plans did not all show detailed proposals of potential solutions. And the planned environmental enhancements were variable and did not meet our expectations in some places.

The gap between supply and demand is increasing. The challenges of climate change, population growth, drought resilience and environmental protection require more water to be available. The emerging regional plans show that, by 2050, as a nation we may need around 4,000 million litres per day (Ml/d) of extra water available for public water supplies.

The draft final regional plans will be consulted on in autumn 2022, alongside the statutory water resources management plans.

Regional groups have continued to develop their plans between the January consultation and publication of this report. They’ve acted on consultation feedback, and worked with us and stakeholders to make changes to the emerging plans. This report discusses what was presented for public consultation in January. We acknowledge that they may have since acted on feedback from us and other stakeholders.

1 Introduction

The Environment Agency has a statutory duty to secure the proper use of water resources, including efficient use of those resources, in England. We aim to make sure there is enough water for people, the economy, and the environment.

In our National Framework for Water Resources (National Framework), published in 2020, we explored England’s long-term water needs. We set out the scale of action needed to make sure resilient water supplies are available to meet future needs of users across all sectors. This includes public water supply, direct abstraction for agriculture, electricity production, and industry. It also sets out a greater level of ambition over the long-term for restoring, protecting, and improving the water environment. This is in line with the government’s 25 Year Environment Plan pledge to leave the environment in a better state than we found it.

The National Framework investigated a range of approaches available to make sure that resilient water supplies are available to meet the needs of all users, up to and beyond 2050. It outlines the principles, expectations and challenges for 5 regional water resources planning groups to:

• develop 5 complementary strategic, multi-sector regional water resources plans
• meet the national need for water over the next 25 years and more through the combination of these plans

January 2022 saw the regional groups reach a major milestone in implementing their actions. It was the first time that emerging plans for all 5 regional groups were shared for public consultation at the same time. We recognise the commitment, collaboration and effort that each group has shown to get to this point.

The Environment Agency has responded individually to each of the regional groups as part of the January consultation on their emerging regional plans. In this report, we provide our overall view of the emerging plans in combination, drawing out common themes and expectations.

In the following sections we:

• explore our findings across the 5 emerging regional plans and the range of possible solutions put forward to meet long term water needs
• outline improvements expected for all regional plans before consultation on the draft final regional plans in autumn 2022
• confirm certain Environment Agency positions and approaches related to regional planning
• outline the 2022 to 2023 timeline for regional plans and proposals for regional plan consultations
• look further ahead at a refreshed National Framework in 2025

The emerging plans that were shared in January are still in development. We will continue to work with regional groups as the plans are further developed through to autumn 2022, when final draft regional plans will be consulted on. The distinction is drawn in this report between ‘emerging’ regional plans that were shared in January, and ‘draft final’ regional plans which will be shared in autumn 2022.

2 Our findings on emerging regional plans

The groups who have developed the emerging regional plans are made up of water companies and other interested water users and stakeholders. They have started a new era of water use planning and represent a collaborative approach to managing water resources, which is not currently required under statute. We have found the regional groups are:

• proposing to tackle future deficits in public water supplies – using demand management options and by improving infrastructure
• planning changes to sources of water supply that will leave more water in the environment – although the approach and extent to which this is happening varies between regional groups
• starting to work with other sectors and recognise there is more to do here

In section 2, we explore in more detail the overarching aspects of the plans.

To request specific Environment Agency responses to each of the regional group consultations, please email enquiries@environment‑agency.gov.uk

2.1 Future gaps in water needs and possible solutions

The emerging regional plans show that, for public water supplies, the gap between the amount of water needed in 2050 and what can currently be supplied is bigger than we estimated.

The National Framework estimated that by 2050, this gap (or additional need) would be around 3,435Ml/d. But combined figures from the regional groups’ modelling now show the figure is nearer 4,000Ml/d.

The emerging regional plans together illustrate:

• how the national gap in water supply by 2050 is distributed across the regions, with nearly 50% of the need occurring in the South East of England (figure 1)
• important drivers behind that need nationally (figure 2)

Figure 1: Regional distribution of public water supply deficit by 2050

Region	Percentage
East	25
North	5
West	17
West Country	6
South East	47

Figure 2: Drivers behind the additional requirement in the supply demand balance by 2050

Driver	Percentage
Climate change impact to supply	11
Environment destination total	49
Demand from household population growth	26
Resilience move to 1:500	14

2.1.1 Reducing demand is a big part of the solution

A big part of reducing the national deficit for public water supply is finding more efficient ways of using the water currently abstracted. The National Framework set the direction for long term reductions in water usage that includes:

• on average, 110 litres per person, per day, of water use by 2050
• reducing non-household demand
• achieving the water industry’s target to reduce leakage by 50% compared to 2017/18 levels by 2050

The emerging regional plans have embraced this direction and include ambitious reductions in water usage (table 1). Nationally, the demand management savings set out in the plans make up almost 2,000Ml/d. This is equivalent to around half of the total deficit forecast by 2050 for England. Demand management makes up a significant proportion of resolving the forecast deficit, particularly in the first 10 to 15 years in some of the emerging regional plans.

Table 1: The demand and leakage reduction ambition in emerging regional plans

Definitions:

• WRE: Water Resources East
• WRSE: Water Resources South East
• WRW: Water Resources West
• WReN: Water Resources North
• WCWR: West Country Water Resources

Regional group	WRE	WRSE	WRW	WReN	WCWR
Per capita consumption ambition by 2050 (litres per head per day)	114	119	112	110	112
Leakage reduction by 2050 (%)	34	52	52	47	50

We strongly support the ambition to meet these targets. We want to see the water companies starting to take action now so that they can deliver the ambitions set out in the regional plans.

2.1.2 Supply options explored

Even with the ambitious leakage and consumption reduction targets outlined, supply side schemes will be needed to resolve the deficit. The emerging plans discuss a range of supply options to tackle this deficit, such as:

• water recycling
• reservoir development
• desalination
• water transfers
• aquifer storage and recovery

Some of the possible solutions explored in the emerging regional plans include:

• WRE – South Lincolnshire and Fenlands Reservoirs, Essex and Lincolnshire desalination and Essex water recycling
• WRSE – South East Strategic Resource Option (SESRO), Havant Thicket and Blackstone reservoirs, water recycling at a number of locations, Sussex Coast desalination and Severn Thames Transfer (STT)
• WRW – changes to Derwent Valley reservoir, Minworth water recycling, to support inter-regional transfers (Severn to Thames transfer and Grand Union Canal)
• WCWR – a potentially innovative repurposing of end-of-life Mendips Quarries as reservoirs
• WReN – recognises need for in region supply solutions, notably in response to a possible reduction or cessation in transfer from WRW

The 5 emerging plans, overall, propose few new interconnections of water resources between regions. In some cases they reduce transfers of water between regions. The plans are showing that the pressures of a growing population, tackling climate change and protecting and enhancing our environment mean that water, which potentially could have been transferred between regions, is now largely being held within regions. The main exception to this is greater connectivity between WRW and WRSE.

Overall, there are some uncertainties and inconsistencies between the regional plans where potential cross-regional options do exist. There is an inherent need for alignment between groups about availability and requirement, timing, and volume. The reconciliation process in April and May 2022 was important for making sure inter-regional options are aligned (see section 5 on next steps).

None of the emerging regional plans define a final set of options. Although WRSE and WRE do include an indication of the most likely solutions in their plans. Some of these are illustrated in figure 3, with possible supply options including:

• reservoir development
• water recycling and desalination
• inter- and intra-regional transfers

For WCWR, WRW and WReN, more work is required before likely options can be agreed. We are not confident that enough options are presented in the emerging plans for WCWR and WReN. We are concerned about whether a truly best value subset can be selected from the limited choice.

Figure 3: Possible supply solutions from WRE and WRSE emerging plans

The map shows some of the likely supply options for WRE and WRSE regional plans.

In WRE:

• 2 reservoir sites, Fenlands Reservoir and South Lincolnshire Reservoir
• 2 desalination options in Essex and Lincolnshire
• a water recycling facility in Essex

In WRSE:

• 3 reservoir options including the South East Strategic Reservoir Option in Oxfordshire, and Blackstone reservoir and Havant Thicket reservoir near the south coast
• 5 water recycling locations distributed around the south and east of the region
• a desalination plant on the Sussex coast
• the Severn Thames and Grand Union Canal transfers

2.2 The environment destination

This section sets out the National Framework challenge for each group to have an ‘environment destination’, then summarises what we found in the emerging regional plans. Section 3.3 lists expectations on the environment destination for draft regional plans. In section 4.2 we set out summary definitions of what is included in the different scenarios for the environment destination.

Through the National Framework we introduced the new concept of the ‘environment destination’. This allows water companies and regional groups to proactively address environmental pressures before they become a problem. In doing so, future problems and potential damage to the environment should not occur, as they will be able to introduce new solutions in time to make sure their abstractions stay sustainable.

By forecasting the need to change abstractions, we can avoid the current expensive cycle of trying to fix problems after they happen. Planning with a long-term view should be more cost effective than reactive investment, which may only address part of the problem. Regional groups were asked to propose a long-term environment destination for water resources and identify the steps needed to get there. The environment destination should:

• ensure no deterioration in status of water bodies
• address unsustainable abstraction
• improve environmental resilience in the face of climate change

The Environment Agency set out some guiding principles for regional groups for the development of their environment destination. These included a range of scenarios for the groups to consider, which allow an assessment of the impacts of different levels of protection for the environment on potential abstraction recovery required. These scenarios represent a starting point for regional groups, with an expectation for the groups to refine this information, engaging widely on local priorities. This is a new groundbreaking approach, and it has been adopted to different extents across the 5 emerging regional plans.

All the regional groups included the environment destination within their emerging regional plans, but the level of environmental improvement proposed varies. Each emerging plan considered a different set of scenarios for the environment destination. Not all the scenarios presented by groups would deliver the existing regulatory commitments required to support good Water Framework Directive (WFD) status and prevent deterioration by 2050.

WRSE’s emerging plan looks at the widest range of scenarios that encompass those set out as a starting point in the National Framework, along with catchment options that provide wider resilience benefit. A more limited number of scenarios were considered in the emerging plans for other regional groups.

Common across all the plans in the scenarios considered is a lack of detail on the delivery of agreed objectives for protected areas. Plans should include this detail to show they fully meet the existing regulatory commitments in their environment destination.

Only 3 of the emerging regional plans – WRSE, WCWR and WRE – include estimated supply loss as a result of future abstraction reductions in their baseline forecast. WReN and WRW provided data on it but didn’t account for it in their baseline. For all the regional plans, further detail on the prioritisation, pace and delivery of the environment destination is required.

A good level of engagement with the Environment Agency and other regulators and stakeholders was seen during the development of the environment destinations across some of the regional groups, which is welcomed. We encourage other groups, who have not fully engaged on the development of their environment destinations, to do so as they continue work to develop this aspect of their regional plans, ready for the draft final plans in autumn 2022.

2.3 Multi-sector planning

An important objective of the National Framework was for regional plans to take a multi-sector approach. We acknowledge that this is still in its infancy and there is more to be done to achieve that objective.

The regional plans are expected to:

• support growth and access to water in their region, across sectors
• consider the benefits of proposed supply side options to water users, other than public water supply

There is also an expectation for the plans to set out what further evidence and work may be required to do this more effectively in the future.

All 5 regional groups have considered some future water demands from non-public water supply sectors in their emerging regional plans. However, planning for sector water use beyond public water supply is limited across the 5 emerging plans. WRE particularly have recognised the acute water resources pressures facing sectors beyond public water supply in their region. They have developed their emerging plan in an inclusive way to consider needs from other sectors in their decision-making.

Fully meeting the initial aim of the National Framework to take a multi-sector approach to regional water resources planning has not been achieved by the emerging plans. Although we expect strong progress, it is unlikely to be fully met in all 5 draft regional plans in autumn. This is due to several process and structural barriers, experienced when engaging sectors beyond public water supply in water resources planning for the first time. Examples of these barriers include:

• how to fund planning and solutions for non-water industry sectors
• challenges of scale and coordination of other water users
• the culture and history of planning water use for the next 25 years and more not existing

It is expected that the progress in multi-sector planning that regional groups have made will be built upon in the coming years, and into the next round of regional plans for 2029. Our refreshed National Framework for Water Resources will focus on providing a clear way to improve multi-sector approaches in regional planning (see section 5).

3. Expectations for draft regional plans

Following the consultation on the emerging regional plans, we have responded to each regional group on improvements we wish to see in their plans. This section summarises the expectations that must be addressed by all regional plans. We are aware that regional groups have been progressing some of these expectations since the emerging regional plans consultation.

3.1 Expectation – ensuring a secure supply of water

Two of the step-changes in water resources planning that the regional plans will deliver, as outlined by the National Framework, are:

• increasing national resilience to drought
• increasing water supplies

Our expectation for the autumn draft regional plans, is for them to demonstrate that all deficits for public water supply are resolved in a final preferred pathway. We expect:

• regional plans to show the solutions needed to overcome the deficit, including adaptive pathways to show how companies can deal with future uncertainty
• the solutions to not create environmental deterioration or preclude environmental enhancement
• the solutions to be best value and adhere to the principles provided in the water resources planning guidelines
• water companies to deliver the programmes of work, and complex decision analysis required to produce a preferred best value plan, with adaptive pathways as needed – to provide secure water supplies and environmental improvement over the next 25 years and more

The emerging regional plans do not identify many water transfers as potential options for securing water supplies in the future. Given that transfers have previously been seen as critical to the solution, we expect regional groups to provide:

• justification and evidence that greater national connectivity of water resources is not worth pursing within their best value plans
• evidence that enough supply options (of all types) are available nationally to allow selection only of best value options to secure supplies in all locations

Where transfers are proposed, regional groups must provide:

• evidence that the transfer provides best value, and does not allow environmental deterioration or preclude environmental enhancement in the donor region
• compatible assessments of water supply resilience in donating catchments and receiving regions, as well as consistent information on transfer quantities, operation and timing presented by the regional groups

3.2 Expectations of achieving long term demand reductions

All 5 emerging regional plans rely on ambitious household demand and leakage reductions to meet a significant component of the future public water supply deficit. Section 2.1 outlined these ambitions. While we strongly support the ambition of groups to meet the stretching demand reductions, we acknowledge the uncertainty in the medium to longer term. Our expectation for managing this risk is that regional plans should provide:

• short term goals through to 2030 that are well defined and achievable
• detailed and well-evidenced actions, with further details reflected in the water resources management plans – this will give confidence that ambitious demand reductions can be met
• monitoring plans and reporting alongside adaptive planning by the companies
• appropriate adaptive plans, with decision points and pathways which manage the uncertainty associated with reducing demand – for example, alternative supply options could be investigated to be brought online, at a certain decision point if it is shown that the water company is failing to achieve the demand reductions

3.3 Restoring, protecting, and improving the environment

Regional plans are fundamental in delivering the National Framework objectives to:

• improve the environment
• address unsustainable abstractions of water from it

Current environmental obligations to tackle unsustainable abstraction will need to be met in all catchments. These, together with planned environmental enhancement, will form the environment destination (described in section 2.2).

The 5 emerging regional plans offer a national environment destination which varies in ambition, depending on location. Our expectation for the regional groups and water companies is to:

• provide an environment destination reflective of the shared environmental goal of regional groups, government, and regulators, which reflects the expectations of stakeholders and contributes to the ambitions of the government’s 25 Year Environment Plan
• take account of the water industry national environment programme (WINEP) in delivering environmental improvements between 2025 and 2030
• from 2030 onwards, as a minimum, to plan for an environment destination scenario which is consistent with the Environment Agency ‘business as usual plus’ (BAU+) locally verified scenario
• provide evidence that all catchments have a fully considered environment destination, with accompanying detail on the timing and prioritisation of achieving that destination

To help regional groups deliver these expectations for the protection and improvement of the environment, as an important part of their regional plans, we have confirmed our requirements for the environment destination. This includes clarity on scenarios and an outline what we expect to see in the draft final regional plans in autumn 2022. This is described in more detail in section 4.2.

3.4 Planning to meet regulatory requirements

The 5 regional groups each own their emerging regional plans and the risks associated with them. A core principle of the National Framework is collaboration between regional groups, regulators, government, and stakeholders to achieve shared goals for security of water supplies, and the protection and enhancement of the environment. As part of that collaboration, government and regulators will work with regional groups as far as practicable to give insights into legislative change, policy updates, and changing regulatory requirements. However, regional plans will always need to accommodate a degree of uncertainty in this area. Whilst recognising that this is a particular challenge for regional groups, we expect:

• regional plans to accommodate known draft and developing approach changes, and evolving regulatory positions as far as practicable
• regional plans to include evidence and detail of the impact of such approach and regulatory changes
• this to be achieved by regional groups working collaboratively with government, regulators, and stakeholders toward shared goals

In section 4, we provide confirmation of the approach we will take on some matters of environmental protection relevant to regional planning.

3.5 Final draft regional plans in autumn 2022

Appendix 2 of the National Framework set out broad objectives and outcomes for regional groups to achieve through their regional plans, as well as some ways of working which the regional groups should follow to produce a regional plan. The emerging regional plans have been reviewed against these ‘must’, ‘should’ and ‘could do’ expectations for regional groups, set out within the National Framework. Across many of the objectives, the emerging plans are close to meeting these. However, for consistency in the autumn 2022 final draft plans, we outline some further detailed expectations here.

The autumn final draft regional plans should be a fully formed draft of a regional plan. This means that the plans should set out the confirmed ambition, proposed strategy, preferred solutions, and alternative choices to meet the planning problem. The public and regulators should be able to clearly see what is being proposed in the regional plans to meet the challenges. And these plans in combination should form a cohesive, strategic plan to meet the national need for water.

Water company water resource management plans must also reflect the relevant regional plan. Or, where 2 relevant plans do not reflect each other, the reasons for this difference must be outlined. That means that the underlying assumptions and the technical methods used within both plans must be aligned, with the presentation of any figures consistent between plans. If inconsistent, the reasons for this should be explained.

Regional plans should be ‘plans in their own right’ that link to relevant water company water resource management plans. This means that we expect regional plans to set out a level of detail and evidence that allows regulators and stakeholders to understand and assess how a regional group will deliver all the elements of its plan. A plan that refers readers to other sources to obtain sufficient understanding required to enable the regional plan to make sense will not meet our expectations. The regional plan should provide a satisfactory level of detail to assure regulators and stakeholders that an outcome in a regional plan is achievable. The regional plan should:

• provide confidence of delivery
• be best value
• describe the specific benefits that it will provide
• outline any risks or uncertainty associated with its delivery

In addition to these expectations, each draft final regional plan should:

• include information to demonstrate that it has been endorsed by all relevant water company boards and the regional group board
• describe the feedback received and changes made in response to the January 2022 emerging plan consultation
• be published alongside all associated documents and appendices in a publicly accessible place

Setting out information accompanying the plan in a numerical format helps regulators and stakeholders to:

• understand the detail and content of the plan
• assess whether the regional plan reflects required outcomes and government expectations

We expect the regional plan to have accompanying data tables. Data tables should forecast the baseline situation for the region, plus the available options and preferred plan for:

• maintaining water supplies for a range of water users
• enhancing the environment in the region

Data tables on public water supply elements of the regional plan will be derived from water resource management plan 2024 draft tables from individual water companies. Regional plan data that does not feature in company water resource management plan 2024 tables, including non-public water supply and environmental needs, should also be presented numerically. Suggested templates, plus transposition advice for data for final draft regional plan submissions in autumn 2022, were shared with regional groups.

4. Confirming our approach

As regional groups have been developing their plans, we have worked with them and have been clarifying the approach we will take on some matters of environmental protection relevant to regional planning. In this section we outline 4 matters on which we have confirmed our approach. We expect to see this reflected in draft regional plans.

4.1 Preventing deterioration

Under the WFD Regulations, we must prevent deterioration in status of water bodies. When considering water quantity, this means we cannot allow abstraction increases to cause deterioration.

More water is licensed for abstraction than is typically used. This can be because:

• abstractors hold water in reserve to meet short term demand peaks
• an abstractor’s water use has decreased since their licence was issued

This creates a risk that future growth in abstraction could cause environmental damage or deterioration, even if it is within licensed constraints.

Where there is a risk that growth in abstraction could cause deterioration, we will reduce the licensed quantities of abstraction licences. This approach may impact supply forecasts in regional plans. The scale of the reductions to abstraction will be proportionate to the risk of deterioration occurring in each water body. Actions we and abstractors take must meet all legal requirements.

For public water supply abstraction, our ‘Water resources planning guideline supplementary guidance – actions required to prevent deterioration’ sets out:

• our approach to reducing the licensed quantities of some public water supply abstraction licences, to prevent deterioration
• how these proposed reductions should be reflected in the water resources management plans

We expect the proposed changes to be included in draft water resource management plans in 2022, reflected in regional plans, and refined for final plans in 2023. We want companies to use water resources management plans 2024, and later plans, to develop options to balance supply and demand and reduce the risk of deterioration.

We will take action to ensure other, non-public water supply licence holders deliver their proportion of change. But the mechanisms and timing of changes will be different from those that apply to water companies. We will work with regional groups to help them make practical planning assumptions about how licence reductions to prevent deterioration may be represented in supply forecasts for non-public water supply abstractions.

4.2 Environment destination

We introduced the concept of an environment destination to encourage long term planning and consideration of environmental requirements as an integral part of planning for future water needs, not as an optional extra. This will help to unlock the issues arising from short term planning for the environment, which has resulted in inaction or short-term expensive solutions to environmental problems caused by abstraction.

As outlined in section 2.2, regional groups have interpreted our guidance on developing the environment destination in varying ways and have applied the suggested scenarios to differing extents. Here, we provide confirmation of the minimum requirement for the environment destination in regional plans, and water resources management plans, and a summary description of the different scenarios. We also outline how the environment destination fits with other regulatory requirements for protection of the environment.

Our expectations of the long-term environment destination are for water companies to describe what future abstraction licence changes are required to achieve and maintain sustainable abstraction. Following the wide range of interpretations of our guidance on the environment destination seen in the emerging plans, and subsequent discussions with fellow regulators, regional groups and some water companies, we are clarifying our expectation to be that:

• all regional groups and water companies plan for what is described as ‘business as usual plus’ (BAU+) that has been locally verified as a minimum
• the BAU+ will be the minimum requirement, but we strongly encourage regional groups and water companies to develop a higher level of protection and enhancement for the environment, in line with the enhanced scenario

The BAU+ locally verified scenario uses existing policy and regulatory approaches now and in the future. By that we mean taking account of government and regulators’ objectives for the environment, including:

• meeting targets set out in the Abstraction Plan for 2027
• achieving European site (Protected Area) and Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) requirements in relation to flow and abstraction as set out in river basin management plans, and plan to meet Common Standards Monitoring Guidance (CSMG) flow targets for riverine European sites
• having regard to conserving (enhancing and restoring) biodiversity in accordance with Section 40 of the Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act 2006
• supporting achievement of WFD objectives for abstraction and flow, including preventing deterioration as defined in river basin management plans
• including WINEP actions related to protecting and improving flow

Applying CSMG flow targets at European designated riverine sites by 2050 at the latest are targets defined by Natural England in 2014 and therefore it is appropriate to account for these in long term planning. Locally verified refers to the analysis that regional groups have done to refine the scenario data developed at national scale by the Environment Agency for the National Framework. This incorporates the discussions held locally with stakeholders and regulators plus work that has already happened or is in progress.

Table 2 summarises the full range of scenarios set out in the National Framework for consideration by regional groups. It illustrates where the BAU+ and enhanced scenarios fit within these.

Table 2: Environment destination scenarios

Table note: HMWB means heavily modified water body.

Environment Agency scenario	Supports good status (WFD) by 2027	Supports good status (WFD) by 2050	CSMG met for protected areas (European sites)	CSMG met for SSSIs	Enhanced abstraction sensitivity banding for chalk	Enhanced abstraction sensitivity band for salmon
2025 baseline (current planned action)	Yes	No	No	No	No	No
2050 business as usual (BAU)	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No
2050 business as usual plus locally verified (BAU+)	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
2050 enhanced	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
2050 adapt	Yes	Yes – except if water body has less stringent objective or is non water resource HMWB	No	No	No	No
2050 locally enhanced (same as 2050 enhanced, plus additional priorities)	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

The time frame for meeting the environment destination is from 2030 to 2050. We expect the WINEP to cover the immediate changes to abstraction licences for water companies between 2025 to 2030. And we expect these will be picked up by individual water company plans. Our approach of reducing licensed quantities to prevent deterioration will be implemented up to 2035, based on risk. Permanent licences will not be affected before 2028. Abstraction plan and current river basin management plan periods run until 2027.

4.3 WFD Regulations compliance – Regulation 19

Regulation 19 of the WFD Regulations provides an exemption from meeting statutory environmental objectives in river basin management plans, where robust justification exists. Such exemption under Regulation 19 will be an exception for only a small number of options that meet the stringent tests set down. It is not something we consider will be widely applicable, as it will usually be possible to find another solution to meet the outcome that does not cause deterioration or prevent the achievement of good status in water bodies.

Regional plans (and water resources management plans) should not contain preferred schemes that are likely to require yet fail an application for Regulation 19. Regional groups should consider our draft advice note ‘Applying regulation 19 to water resources schemes’ in appraising and selecting options. If a plan includes a scheme needing Regulation 19 in its preferred programme, it should justify this, summarising pertinent points of the Regulation 19 case that will be made at time of permit applications.

4.4 New river augmentation schemes related to proposed supply schemes

River augmentation typically involves discharging water abstracted from groundwater or another water body into a river to augment its flow. Where river augmentation is proposed as part of a new supply scheme it would likely fall into one of 2 categories:

1. The use of discharged water to mitigate abstraction impacts of the new supply scheme in the river that receives the augmentation.
2. Transferring water from one water body (or groundwater body) to another, to support abstraction from the river that receives augmentation.

Our approach follows the principle that environmental damage should as a priority be rectified at source. Therefore, in the example of category 1, we would not regard the proposed scheme as acceptable. The new supply scheme should not be planned to require mitigation with a river augmentation scheme, this is not considered sustainable.

In the example of category 2, with the appropriate assessments, a sustainable scheme that transfers water in this way could be accepted in principle (but would be determined on a case-by-case basis).

We expect over time, that the long-term sustainability of existing schemes falling into category 1 will be reviewed, including consideration of the carbon impact of pumping. We expect plans to replace unsustainable schemes – that exist to allow environmental damage due to abstraction to occur – to be included within the environment destination in future planning rounds.

5. Next steps for the regional plans

The next 18 to 24 months is a busy time for water resources planning and implementing the objectives of the National Framework.

In April and May 2022, regional groups took part in reconciliation. This was a second exercise in alignment between regional plans, following on from any changes due to the emerging plan consultations. The reconciliation aimed to align selection of relevant strategic schemes between regional plans.

In autumn 2022, regional groups will launch their draft final regional plans for public consultation on their individual timelines. We expect all regional groups to publicly consult for at least 12 weeks (14 weeks if covering holiday periods at the end of December), allowing suitable time for all to comment on the plans. This is the next major milestone in implementing the objectives of the National Framework. This milestone is aligned to the statutory public consultation of water resource management plans, which are required to reflect relevant regional plans.

Late 2023 will see final regional plans published and water companies could be given permission to publish final water resources management plans. Meanwhile, strategic solutions, that form an integral part of the regional plans and water resources management plans, will continue to progress through the RAPID (Regulators Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development) gated process. The gated process exists to give funding certainty and the ability for companies to accelerate the development of strategic solutions to be ‘construction ready’ by the period 2025 to 2030. Submissions and assessment of progress for gate 2 of 5 will be aligned with regional plan and water resource management plan timelines over 2022 to 2023.

Important dates in the water resources management timeline

April to May 2022: Regional plan reconciliation.

July 2022: Southern Water draft WRMP consultation begins (12 weeks).

October 2022: WRSE final draft regional plan published for consultation.

November 2022:

• final draft regional plans published for consultation (WRE, WReN, WRW, WCWR)
• draft WRMP consultation begins for all other companies (14 weeks)
• RAPID gate 2 submission

January 2023: WRMP consultation statement of response from Southern Water.

February 2023: RAPID gate 2 draft decision.

May 2023: WRMP consultation statement of response from all other water companies.

June 2023: RAPID gate 2 final decision.

September 2023: Final regional plans published.

6. Refreshed National Framework

The Environment Agency will publish a refreshed National Framework for Water Resources in 2025. The emerging and draft regional plans discussed here represent a significant and groundbreaking shift to a new strategic regional planning approach, which we know is just the start of the journey. Refreshing the National Framework will ensure that it remains a relevant framework for planning resilient water supplies, which evolves as lessons are learned from this round of regional plans and provides a strategic steer for the 2029 planning round.

We expect regulators and government to confirm that regional plans created by regional water resources groups will again be a part of the 2029 planning round by autumn 2022. This timing should align with the price review process to enable resources for public water supply regional planning to be secured. The funding of multi-sector planning, and indeed reducing all the barriers to taking a multi-sector approach to regional water resources planning, will be an important focus for the refreshed framework.

Development of the refreshed National Framework will be collaborative, with widespread engagement planned. The Environment Agency has already begun early engagement sessions with important stakeholders and will widen this engagement over the next year.

New and improved data and modelling from the work done to develop the current set of regional plans will be used to inform the refreshed National Framework. An important part of the refreshed National Framework will be looking at improving assessment of water need outside the water industry, particularly in energy and agriculture. We will explore ways to further develop catchment strategies, which should also feature as an important part of the regional planning process.